Six possible statewide Republican candidates recently got together at party headquarters in Montpelier to start talking about next year's campaign.
They did not decide who would run for what.
“It was essentially a meeting to talk about 2012, but no decisions were reached,” said Sen. Randy Brock, R-Grand Ise-Franklin, one of the meeting-goers. “No one as far as I can tell reached any firm decisions. People are thinking about various options.”
Neither, despite reports to the contrary, were they trying to anoint one candidate for governor so that the party could avoid a primary.
So, at least, said Republican State Chair Pat McDonald, who should know. She organized the meeting.
“A primary in some cases is a good thing,” said McDonald.
As last year's election proved. Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie waltzed to the nomination unopposed, only to lose to Peter Shumlin, who barely squeaked to victory in a five-way Democratic primary.
Besides, the state chair and six potential candidates – even if two hold statewide office – lack the power to ordain the party's nominee or to stop anyone else from running. They seem to know that.
“I wanted to make sure the Republican Party encourages people to be engaged and encourages people who might not have been in that room to consider running for governor or other offices,” said Snelling Center president Mark Snelling, the former candidate who is the least likely of the six to seek office next year.
McDonald also said one topic of discussion was the possibility that other potential candidates might come forward.
“I'm told others have interest,” she said. “We're reaching out as a party. Our meeting was to make sure we do include everyone.”
But just because the meeting was preliminary does not render it insignificant. The fact that GOP bigwigs felt it necessary to start serious and (sort of) formal discussions about an election 17 months away reveals two facts about Vermont politics right now:
• It isn't too early. And it isn't too early because money matters, even in Vermont. Perhaps not as much as it does in most other states, but more than it used to matter because campaigns increasingly rely on expensive television advertising;
• The Republicans are in bad shape. Bad does not mean hopeless, because in politics, fortunes can turn quickly. But the only Republican likely to give Shumlin a tough fight, Lt. Gov. Phil Scott, is “definitely” not running, said a senior Republican official who knows the lieutenant governor.
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Senior, knowledgeable, officials have been wrong before because politicians have been known to change their minds. But it seems highly unlikely that Scott (who was at the meeting) would challenge Shumlin next year. Snelling said he had heard the lieutenant governor say he is “happy where he is.”
No incumbent governor has been defeated in this state since 1962, and that was a governor (F. Ray Keyser, Jr.) who made several political mistakes. Shumlin, thus far, has made none, or at least none that matter. Incumbents do well in Vermont, especially running for their second two-year term, as if voters effectively acknowledge that two years isn't enough time for a governor to make his or her mark.
Besides, next year is a presidential election year, when turnout will be much higher than it was last year. McDonald said she saw that as an opportunity. Noting that almost half of Vermont's registered voters did not vote last year, she said, “There's a reason why they didn't.”
No doubt, but turnout was down all over the country, and higher turnout tends to help Democrats. Whatever happens elsewhere, Barack Obama is likely to carry Vermont, meaning he'll win the support of most of the 80,000 or so voters who did not show up in 2010 but will vote next year.
Some will just vote for president and go home. Some will split their tickets. But if history is any guide (and it's the only one) some, even those who are not loyal Democrats, will be in a Democratic mood that day and keep voting for Democrats. Popular incumbents like Jim Douglas can often overcome that phenomenon (“surge and decline,” the political scientists call it). Long-shot challengers rarely can.
Of all the potential contenders in the room, the one sending the strongest signals that he might want to challenge Shumlin is Auditor Tom Salmon. On his Facebook page, Salmon said that a race between him and Shumlin would be “thrilla in Montpilla,” playing off the “Thriller in Manila” nickname of the 1975 heavyweight championship fight between Joe Frazier and Mohammed Ali.
But it's hard to know what Salmon will do. The Democrat-turned-Republican earlier all but pledged to challenge Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., next year and ruled out running for re-election as auditor. Now he is considering the governorship and another term as auditor.
Mayor Thomas Lauzon of Barre has also pondered running against either Shumlin or Sanders. Lauzon was at the meeting, as (by phone) was Dubie, who has not ruled out a rematch with Shumlin, but does not seem to have done anything to prepare for one.
Brock said he is considering all his options, and he is certainly acting like a candidate for statewide office. But probably not governor nor lieutenant governor, assuming Scott runs for re-election. Brock could seek to reclaim the auditor's post, which he lost narrowly to Salmon back when (and largely because) Salmon was a Democrat.
Brock also could challenge Treasurer Beth Pearce, who has never run for office and who was appointed by Shumlin to replace Jeb Spaulding when Spaulding became Secretary of Administration.
As to those others out there that both Snelling and McDonald mentioned, neither provided any names. It would not be surprising if GOP leaders were hoping for another Jack McMullen or Rich Tarrant, very wealthy businessmen making their first run for public office and willing to finance most of their own campaigns.