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The Commons
News

Severe weather possible this weekend

More-tranquil conditions should follow early next week

Originally published in The Commons issue #414 (Wednesday, June 28, 2017). This story appeared on page 0.



Good day, denizens of southeastern Vermont! We have an unsettled period of weather upcoming, with a number of chances for showers, downpours, and thunderstorms.

Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe with gusty winds, large hail, frequent lightning, and torrential rain. Given expected substantial wind shear values on Saturday as a potent storm passes to our north, a tornado cannot be ruled out, so please stay tuned to your preferred weather outlet this weekend for the latest forecasts.

For Wednesday, we should experience a lovely day overall. High pressure will be building in towards our south over the Mid-Atlantic region, and while some scattered showers or even an isolated thunderstorm are possible, we should enjoy a partly to mostly sunny day with highs in the low 70s. Lows will drop into the mid 50s with a light wind under partly cloudy skies.

For Thursday, high pressure scoots off the U.S. coastline, and will allow for a southwesterly flow to develop. Low pressure will be pushing east into the Great Lakes region and its associated warm front will begin to approach southern Vermont.

I don’t think it will push through our region until overnight on Thursday. Nonetheless, it will serve as a focus for showers and downpours to develop, along with an isolated thunderstorm or two. It will be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s with more scattered showers expected.

The Friday through Sunday timeframe looks very unsettled. Once the warm front pushes north of us, it should roughly lie parallel to the Vermont-Massachusettts border, encouraging a “zonal,” or west-to-east flow through the region.

The air mass will be unstable and. with some morning surface heating expected as of this writing, we could see scattered showers, along with thunderstorms that may become strong to severe. Highs will be in the low 80s, and lows in the mid 60s with very humid conditions.

Saturday is the highest chance for severe weather. A strong low pressure system will race east through southern Canada, and could increase wind shear aloft over southern Vermont.

This change in wind speed and direction from surface to sky could mix with high instability and copious moisture to produce damaging thunderstorms, so keep an eye to the sky on Saturday. Highs will again be in the low 80s and lows in the 60s.

Sunday features more showers and storms with highs near 80 degrees. By early next week, we should see more tranquil weather, but scattered showers and storms cannot be ruled out as of now.

Have a great week!

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