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The Commons

More unseasonable mildness with wintry storminess by Friday

Dave Hayes maintains a daily blog on Facebook (, where he produces hyper-local reports, answers questions, and keeps more than 25,000 followers informed and educated about the weather.

Originally published in The Commons issue #448 (Wednesday, February 28, 2018).

Good day to you, windy hamlet dwellers! Actually, by this Friday, the county that occupies southeastern Vermont may live up to its name, especially in the high terrain. For the mid-week period, we will enjoy above-seasonable temperatures and calm conditions.

However, by Thursday night into Saturday morning, we will be watching several atmospheric features that may combine to produce a late-season snowstorm accompanied by strong easterly winds that could cramp the style of many a southern Vermonter. It could cause some power outages, so let’s jump into the details!

For Wednesday, high pressure will be moving off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and scooting east of our longitude, which will produce a southwesterly flow.

This will allow unseasonably mild temperatures into southern Vermont, and highs should crest into the low to mid 50s under partly to mostly sunny skies with light southwest winds. At night, clouds will increase and lows will sit down into the low to mid 30s.

For Thursday, highs will be in the 40s and a few rain showers are possible. Clouds will continue to be on the increase as low pressure gets its act together to our southwest over the Ohio Valley.

A northern stream system that dove through British Columbia and into the northern Plains will join forces with a southern stream system that ejected out of the southwest U.S. and picked up some Gulf-of-Mexico moisture.

As these systems phase into one system over Ohio and Pennsylvania, very strong blocking high pressure near Greenland and northeast Canada will prevent the storm from running west of Vermont. Instead, it will be forced under (i.e. south of) this ridge and off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

Where the storm tracks exactly, how much cold air it pulls down from higher up in the sky, and how the winds set up will all play into storm impacts here.

For now, it looks like rain and snow showers develop Thursday night, while Friday into Friday night may produce moderate to heavy wet snow for the mountainous areas, and periods of snow or rain/snow mix in the valley areas. Some outages will be possible, as very strong easterly winds will wrap into the region, and may enhance snowfall rates on east-facing slopes.

Stay tuned to this paper’s Facebook page and I’ll post storm updates there.

Friday features highs in the 30s, lows in the 20s. The storm quits by Saturday morning or so, with highs that day in the upper 30s. We stay cooler with mixed skies into next Tuesday with highs either side of 40 degrees. By that time, we may be dealing with another snowstorm around Tuesday or Wednesday.

Have a great week!

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