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A stormy Thursday, weekend showers won’t dent drought

Dave Hayes is a self-described “weather nut” (a term he prefers to “enthusiast”) who lives in western Massachusetts, his home for almost 30 years. He operates a daily blog on Facebook (facebook.com/WesternMassWeather), where he produces hyper-local reports, answers questions, and keeps more than 20,000 followers informed and educated about the weather that will impact their plans and lives.

Good day to you, denizens of Windham County! Luckily we received some rain over the weekend, although some certainly saw more than others.

As of this writing, all of Windham County is still in a moderate drought. Unfortunately, we don’t have much rain on the way over the next seven days, with Thursday and this weekend providing the best chances.

On Wednesday the humidity will be building in advance of a cold front that will be slowly slicing across New York state on Thursday. We could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday afternoon or evening, but it should be mainly dry and mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and lows in the 60s.

* * *

Once Thursday rolls around, we’re deep in the soup. Dew point temperatures could top 70 degrees, with air temperatures in the middle 80s.

This is oppressive humidity, so again, those with respiratory issues should plan to take it easy on Wednesday and especially Thursday. Lows will be warm and remain in the mid- to even upper 60s.

As the cold front approaches from the west on Thursday, and high pressure departs to the east, the resulting southwest flow will provide plenty of moisture to fuel convection (i.e. rising air).

While the combination of moisture, instability, and wind shear will be present to moderate degrees, the cold front doesn’t look to be that strong. In other words, the forced rising of air (a.k.a. “forcing” or “lift”) won’t be terribly strong.

Regardless, we can expect showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night, and some could be strong with heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

* * *

By Friday, we should have more sun than clouds as the front keeps on trucking to the east. Highs should reach into the mid 80s with lows near 60 degrees.

This weekend’s weather remains tricky and uncertain, as a low-pressure system may develop along a frontal boundary off the Connecticut coast. How close it will come and when it will form aren’t clear, so suffice it to say that there’s a low chance of some showers possible, with highs falling on either side of 80 degrees.

By early next week, we should see more fair weather with highs in the low to mid 80s, and a shower possible Tuesday afternoon.

Have a great week!

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Originally published in The Commons issue #365 (Wednesday, July 13, 2016). This story appeared on page A2.

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