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Broken record weather: Sunshine, drought continues

Dave Hayes is a self-described “weather nut” (a term he prefers to “enthusiast”) who lives in western Massachusetts, his home for almost 30 years. He operates a daily blog on Facebook (facebook.com/WesternMassWeather), where he produces hyper-local reports, answers questions, and keeps more than 20,000 followers informed and educated about the weather that will impact their plans and lives.

Good day, fine people! If you like sunshine, you’re in luck, because there’s no shortage of it in the forecast.

The only plausible chance for rainy weather occurs Wednesday afternoon and night extending into the first half of Thursday. Beyond that, there is a very, very low chance that a tropical system now down in the Gulf of Mexico skirts the southern New England coastline, bringing the chance for more showers to southern Vermont by early next week, but most likely that system will be suppressed to our south and out to sea.

On Wednesday, a cold front will be located way out in western New York and slowly pushing south and east towards Windham County. That frontal boundary will produce a southerly warm, humid flow of air into the region. High temperatures will reach into the low 80s.

This flow will allow dew point temperatures to reach into the 60s for Wednesday into Thursday, so expect a muggy couple of days. Lows Wednesday night should settle in the low 60s.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible anytime from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Any thunderstorms should be garden variety and not severe.

Highs on Thursday should settle back down into the low to mid 70s, with partly sunny skies for the most part. Lows Thursday night should dip down into the low to mid 50s as cooler, drier, more comfortable air sets up shop.

By Friday, cool Canadian high pressure will be firmly establishing itself over southern Vermont, creating a taste of autumn. Highs Friday and Saturday should sit squarely in the low 70s, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see highs not even reaching 70 degrees in the higher elevations. Lows will be in the 50s, and some some 40s are even possible.

Expect plenty of sunshine all the way through Labor Day Weekend. As high pressure begins to re-establish itself off of the southeast U.S. coast, we will begin to warm back up towards Labor Day itself, with highs generally 75-80 degrees by early next week. We could even see temperatures back into the low 80s by the middle of next week.

Again, there is a very low chance that a tropical system moves out of the Gulf and comes close enough to graze us early next week, but right now, it appears it will go out to sea.

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Originally published in The Commons issue #372 (Wednesday, August 31, 2016). This story appeared on page D4.

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