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Wednesday warmth begets Thursday rain

Dave Hayes operates a daily blog on Facebook (facebook.com/WesternMassWeather), where he produces hyper-local reports, answers questions, and keeps more than 20,000 followers informed and educated about the weather.

Good morning, afternoon, or evening to you, depending on what time of day you’ve picked up the paper! After our unseasonable early snowfall last week, we’re flipping the cards with some unseasonable warmth that will visit our environs for Wednesday and Thursday. Shortly thereafter, a disturbance and associated cold front will push through southern Vermont by Friday morning, dropping us squarely into Autumn once again. To the details!

For Wednesday, high pressure will dominate, and we’ll enjoy a partly sunny, beautiful day with warm temperatures for this time of year that will crest into the low to mid 60s. It really doesn’t get much better than that for early November in southern Vermont! Lows will sit down into the mid to upper 40s as clouds build from the west.

For Thursday, we’ll continue to be warmer than normal with high temps again in the low to mid 60s. We’ll have a chance at a partly sunny start, but more likely than not clouds will already be building Thursday morning as a shortwave approaches, bringing rain showers into the region as early as the late morning, and certainly by early afternoon. Rain showers should last into the evening as low pressure tracks nearby. As the cold front pushes through, lows will drop into the mid 30s.

In fact, it is not out of the question that the mountains of western Windham County could receive some rain showers that turn to snow showers overnight and into very early Friday morning, with some light accumulations possible.

As Friday wears on, the clouds will depart to the east, revealing a mostly sunny day, but cool and blustery with winds out of the northwest and highs only reaching into the low to mid 40s. In other words, back to reality! Lows Friday night will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

The weekend is tricky and uncertain. An upper-level low-pressure system will drop south out of Canada into the northeast U.S. As is the case with such features, their tracks carry much uncertainty. Suffice it to say, some showery activity is possible this weekend, but timing is unclear. Highs should moderate into the upper 40s, and skies should average partly cloudy.

As of this writing, fair weather looks to dominate early next week, with highs 45-50 degrees and lows near freezing. Have a great week!

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Originally published in The Commons issue #381 (Wednesday, November 2, 2016). This story appeared on page F4.

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