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Mother’s Day nor’easter possible, as slow spring start continues

Dave Hayes maintains a daily blog on Facebook (facebook.com/WesternMassWeather), where he produces hyper-local reports, answers questions, and keeps more than 24,000 followers informed and educated about the weather.

Good day to you! We’re having a slow start to spring this year as a trough in the east has caused a return to unseasonably cool conditions, which brought some recent frosts and even snow showers to southeastern Vermont.

While there are signs of at least a brief warm up by the middle of next week, we have another several days of cooler-than-average conditions to get through, including the potential for a rather rainy Mother’s Day 2017. So let’s jump into the details!

* * *

For Wednesday, an upper-level low-pressure system that has been bringing rain and snow showers to the region as of late will begin to pull away to the east. This should allow for a partly sunny day with highs in the low to mid 50s with a light north wind. Lows will drop into the upper 30s.

For Thursday, one last departing shortwave will drop south and east through the region, and while it should be mostly cloudy during the day, some isolated showers are possible. Highs will crest into the mid 50s again with lows in the low 40s.

For Friday, we should enjoy one more day of generally fair weather. Departing high pressure will keep us dry, though it should be a mostly cloudy day with highs in the upper 50s and lows in the low 40s, with increasing clouds late.

Over Mother’s Day weekend, we will turn our attention to the west and southwest, with two low-pressure systems approaching. The first will be a northern stream system, sort of like an Alberta Clipper in the winter. The second will be a more juicy low rounding the southern base of the trough over the eastern U.S.

How far north this southern low is able to track towards New England will determine how much it phases with the northern stream low, and how much rain we get here in Windham County. If they phase, we will get a soaking rain late Saturday through Sunday, and possibly into Monday. If the southern low slides out to sea, we will have some showers on Sunday with less of an impact. Highs will only be in the 50s.

By early next week, we could see some more showers associated with an upper low Monday into Tuesday, and then hopefully we will warm above 60 by the middle of next week and experience some drying conditions.

Have a great week!

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Originally published in The Commons issue #407 (Wednesday, May 10, 2017).

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