Good day to you, southern Vermonters! We're finally entering the summer season after a slow, winding grind out of the 2017-18 cold season.
There are some signs that the late June into early July period could turn even warmer, but we'll handle that when we get there. For this week, we've got warm temperatures and a couple of chances at strong thunderstorms.
The first shot is today (June 13), and the second shot is Monday. Both setups feature a warm, moist southerly flow with an incoming cold front from the northwest. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but it could rock-and-roll in a few spots over southern Vermont, so let's jump into the details!
For Wednesday, we'll see high pressure pushing off to our southeast, which will continue the surface flow from the south and southwest. This will help to float a warm front through to our north, which will advect humid, moist air into the region.
Accordingly, we'll see dew point temperatures rise into the 60s, with air temperatures rising into the lower 70s during the afternoon.
Some showers are possible in the morning with the warm frontal passage, but it's the cold front that passes during the evening that could combine with moisture, instability, and some modest wind shear to produce scattered heavier showers and thunderstorms, some of which may contain small hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Expect lows in the upper 50s.
For Thursday, that whole semi-soupy mess gets swept out to sea, and in its wake is another weak cold frontal passage that should progress from north to south, possibly resulting in an isolated shower.
Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies with highs in the low 70s and west winds gusting to 25 mph at times. Lows will be in the upper 40s for another night of very comfortable sleeping!
The period from Friday through Sunday looks absolutely delightful, with plenty of sunshine, dry conditions, and warm temperatures. High pressure will drift southeast out of Ontario through New York and Pennsylvania through Friday and Saturday.
Expect plenty of sunshine and highs in the low 70s on Friday and the upper 70s on Saturday. By Sunday, we are in full summer mode with highs in the low 80s. Lows will be in the 50s through the period.
By Monday, humidity and heat will be building, for a day that may reach into the mid 80s. A cold front will be approaching, and more downpours and strong thunderstorms will be possible. Tuesday looks cooler and drier behind the front. Have a great week!