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Mild and rainy to start November; sunshine returns on Sunday

Dave Hayes maintains a daily blog on Facebook (facebook.com/WesternMassWeather), where he produces hyper-local reports, answers questions, and keeps more than 30,000 followers informed and educated about the weather.

Good day to you, good people of southern Vermont! Overall, November appears to be a month of oscillation. We should see a mild start, a potentially colder middle period, and then a milder end of the month.

This will likely be due to a ridge (i.e., a large area of high pressure in the upper levels) near Greenland. These blocks are only foreseeable a couple of weeks out, and this signal continues to show itself lately.

This should help push some cooler temperatures into the region in the second or third week of November. Until then, we’re going to experience milder temperatures. With rain on the way for late this week, let’s jump into the details!

For Wednesday, a southwest flow will develop over the region ahead of a slowing and stalling cold front out west over New York state. This will produce some southerly wind gusts to 20 mph at times, along with highs in the low to mid 50s under partly sunny skies.

Clouds will tend to increase toward sunset, and some scattered showers are possible into Wednesday night, when lows will dip into the 40s.

For Thursday, our cold front moves a bit closer, but slows down, and possibly even stalls. As a milder, wetter flow continues to encroach on southern Vermont, more in the way of showers are expected for both Thursday and Thursday night.

Highs will be in the mid 50s and lows in the mid to upper 40s, with showers continuing.

For Friday, the timing of our frontal passage becomes murky. Either way, expect a rainy day, with the potential for thunderstorms. With strong southerly flow, highs will be quite mild, reaching the upper 50s to low 60s. Lows will be in the 40s.

For Saturday, we transition. If the front slows, we could still be dealing with showers in the morning. Otherwise, it should be mostly cloudy with sunny periods by the afternoon as high pressure begins to work into the region.

Highs will again reach into the low to mid 50s with lows in the mid 30s as cooler and drier air works into the region.

For Sunday into Monday, high pressure re-establishes a westerly to northwesterly flow, with plenty of sunshine, dry conditions, and highs in the upper 40s to low 50s with lows near freezing.

Tuesday may see another round of scattered showers move into the region. Have a great week!

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Originally published in The Commons issue #483 (Wednesday, October 31, 2018). This story appeared on page A2.

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