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A fine Fourth awaits, with seasonable summer heat, but storms expected Saturday

Dave Hayes maintains a daily blog on Facebook (facebook.com/WesternMassWeather), where he produces hyper-local reports, answers questions, and keeps more than 30,000 followers informed and educated about the weather.

Hello and good day to you, southeastern Vermonters! Summer has finally arrived, and fortunately for may, it’s a seasonable start.

It’s hot at times, but not overly so. Humidity has been on the rise, but oppressive conditions don’t last long.

For Wednesday through Friday, we’re looking at a fairly humid air mass taking up residence, and temperatures will increase to near 90 by the end of the week, with a hot and rain-free 4th of July!

By Friday afternoon and evening, the eastern portion of a disturbance pushes in from the west and should bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms by Friday night.

Saturday is a day of potential severe weather, with a strong cold front dropping down from northern New England. This front may stall and lead to more showers by Sunday, but we should be cooling and drying into early next week.

With the weekly picture painted and presented in its rough hewn form, let’s dip into the dailies!

For Wednesday, high pressure will be building into the region and result in a mostly sunny day with increasing humidity and high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s with a light northwest wind. Lows temps are expected to drop to near 60 degrees under mostly clear skies, with some 50s in the mountains.

For the 4th of July, high pressure crests over the region with mostly sunny skies, fairly high (but tolerable) humidity, and highs in the low 80s over the high terrain north and west, and the mid to upper 80s in southern and eastern portions of Windham County. Lows will be in the low 60s under mostly clear skies.

For Friday, we start to transition into an increasingly humid and more unstable air mass as high pressure exits to the east. Expect mostly sunny skies early, but partial sunshine with increasing cloud cover as the day wears on.

Highs will be similar to Thursday. As a disturbance works east, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late in the day. Lows should hang in the mid 60s with humid air.

Saturday is going to be the day to watch this week. Much cooler and drier air will be diving south and east from northern New York and northern New England during the day, with a peak of humidity building with plenty of moisture over southern Vermont.

Depending on exact cold frontal orientation, we will either see numerous showers with embedded downpours and thunderstorms, or scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong gusty winds and hail possible.

Highs will reach the low 80s and lows will dip to near 60 degrees with showers and thunderstorms possible at night.

Sunday may feature a few showers early, or an isolated instability shower in the afternoon, but will otherwise be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 70s. Early next week looks fair and dry, with highs 75 to 80 degrees. Have a great week!

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Originally published in The Commons issue #517 (Wednesday, July 3, 2019). This story appeared on page A4.

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