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Mid-week showers and thunderstorms usher in a lovely taste of fall

Dave Hayes maintains a daily blog on Facebook (facebook.com/WesternMassWeather), where he produces hyper-local reports, answers questions, and keeps more than 33,000 followers informed and educated about the weather.

Hello and good day to you, Windham County folks! I hope things are well with you. Fortunately for us, things are going to be good in the weather department by Friday afternoon through early next week. We have a truly lovely weekend on the way, with significantly cooler and drier conditions on the way.

However, before that, we are going to see high humidity Wednesday and Thursday as warm and cold frontal passages combine to produce a surge in moisture, along with showers, downpours and thunderstorms.

Some of these storms may become strong to severe Wednesday late afternoon into the night, with localized damaging wind gusts and flash flooding possible. With the broad strokes in place, let’s jump into the atmospheric expectations for each day and flesh out the details!

For Wednesday, a warm front will be passing north through the region. This may spark some isolated showers or even a thunderstorm during the morning. It will also introduce high humidity into the region, with dewpoint temperatures climbing into the mid 60s to low 70s through Thursday night.

Despite the isolated shower chance, much of Wednesday should be rain-free. Highs are expected to peak out in the upper 70s to low 80s under partly sunny skies.

By late on Wednesday afternoon, however, a pre-frontal trough will be tracking east into the southern Vermont region, along with a couple of disturbances in that flow, ahead of the cold front which arrives Thursday.

With enough clearing of the cloud deck, we should see plenty of instability develop. This will combine with ample moisture and lift from the incoming disturbances to produce scattered showers, downpours, and thunderstorms late in the afternoon and through the overnight period.

Some of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind and flash flooding possible in localized areas, with severe weather waning by midnight. Lows will drop into the mid 60s.

For Thursday, we should see mostly cloudy skies, and see periods of showers during the day with highs in the 75-80 degree range. We can’t rule out a thunderstorm either, but any storms should be non-severe. Lows should drop to near 60 degrees with any scattered showers exiting the region.

By Friday, our cold front will be exiting to our east and sweeping our morass of moisture out to sea. High pressure out of Canada will be pushing into the region with vigor, and our jet stream will take on a more west-to-east (a.k.a., “zonal”) flow through the weekend.

This will produce plenty of sunshine from Friday through Monday with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s. By Tuesday, a brief surge of humidity and shower potential will re-enter our region. Have a great week!

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Originally published in The Commons issue #522 (Wednesday, August 7, 2019). This story appeared on page C3.

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